The last few years have taught us that problems don't usually come one at a time. Energy can go up, a supplier can fail, or access conditions to an foreign market can change. And what starts as a supply or purchasing problem can end up affecting a product launch, the selling price, or, directly, the margin.

However, only 10% of Spanish companies have a true contingency plan, according to the latest study by Crédito y Caución and Iberinform, published in June 2026. 40% have basic measures, 32% have specific actions, and 9% admit to having no strategy.

In cosmetics and perfumery, there are three fronts to which I would pay special attention.

1. The packaging: what happens if my supplier doesn't arrive on time?

In cosmetics, packaging is not a secondary element. It is part of the product's identity, conditions its presentation, and, in many cases, is decisive for the launch.

The new European Regulation on packaging and packaging waste is generally applicable from August 12, 2026. Its implications must be analyzed according to the type of packaging and the requirements corresponding to each product. Source: Regulation (EU) 2025/40.

But, beyond the regulations, what happens if tomorrow my supplier of bottles, jars, caps, or cases cannot supply me? Do I have an alternative prepared?

Changing suppliers is not always as simple as asking for another quote. Compatibility, quality, deadlines, and necessary validations must be assessed. If an alternative has not been foreseen, a supply problem can end up delaying a launch or compromising the sales we expected to achieve with it.

That is why it is convenient to review both supplier dependence and the agreed conditions and real substitution options. When the problem arises, the time available to decide is usually much shorter.

2. Export: how much margin do I have left if market conditions change?

For a brand with an international presence, relying too much on one market can become a vulnerability. And sales don't have to fall for the problem to appear: it's enough for tariffs, commercial conditions, or distribution costs to change.

The trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, in force since July 1, 2026, establishes a general tariff limit of 15% for most European exports, with exceptions depending on the product and the applicable regime. In cosmetics, it is important to check the specific tariff classification of each reference before calculating its impact. Source: European Commission.

The question for a company is not only how much it sells in the United States, but what profitability it obtains from those sales and what capacity it would have to absorb a change in costs.

If the cost of exporting increases, can I pass it on to the price without losing competitiveness? Do I have room to renegotiate commercial terms? What alternatives do I have if a market stops being so profitable?

These are questions worth asking before the rules change. Because selling a lot in a market does not necessarily mean improving the margin.

3. Energy and transport: do I know how much they really cost me?

Manufacturing, conditioning, storing, and distributing cosmetic products involves a cost structure that goes far beyond raw materials. Energy, transport, and associated services also influence profitability.

The problem is that, when prices change, not all contracts adapt equally, and not always in favor of the company. A company may have a fixed or indexed energy rate; a carrier may review the price based on fuel evolution, and other suppliers may update their rates to pass on increases in their own costs.

That's why it's not enough to know that energy or transport prices have gone up. We need to know how much they represent in our costs, what conditions we have signed, and how these variations are reflected in the income statement.

And there's an additional question: when do we review these conditions? If contracts are automatically renewed and no one checks if they are still competitive, the company can maintain costs for months that no longer respond to market conditions.

It's not about changing suppliers every time an offer appears or chasing the lowest price. It's about knowing if we are paying a reasonable price for the service we receive and if the conditions still make sense for our business.

A contingency plan is not about cutting just in case

For me, a contingency plan basically consists of having thought beforehand what we would do if something happens that could seriously affect the business.

What expenses can we adjust without harming the activity? On which suppliers do we depend too much? What contracts limit our capacity to react? Who should make each decision and what signals would indicate that the time has come to act?

There are also two issues that are sometimes forgotten: assigning responsibilities and periodically reviewing the plan. Suppliers change, costs evolve, and today's risks may not be the same in six months.

And it's important to be clear about something: preparing does not mean preemptively cutting back or jeopardizing quality, innovation, or launches. In a sector like beauty, where product differentiation and speed to market are so important, a poorly conceived decision can end up costing more than it intended to save.

If I had to recommend a single priority, it would be to thoroughly understand the company's cost structure and know where it is most exposed.

Which items truly weigh, where we depend on a single supplier, what conditions we have signed, and what alternatives exist if something changes.

We cannot control all external circumstances. But we can decide how much we know our business and what options we will have when conditions change.

The difference between a company that anticipates and one that improvises is not that the former has no problems, but that it has more information, more alternatives, and more time to decide.