Does Trump's defeat in the midterms open a new scenario for European exports?

The Democratic victory in the US midterm elections introduces a new factor of uncertainty in Washington's trade policy. Although the change in majorities in Congress does not guarantee a withdrawal of tariffs, it can increase political pressure on the Trump Administration and condition trade relations between the United States and the European Union.The cosmetics sector and the world of exports cannot take their eyes off Washington. The victory of the Democratic Party in the November 3 midterm elections, in which it gained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, represents a significant setback for Donald Trump and may usher in a new political era in the United States. Trump has lost power in areas of the United States where he held a majority for more than three decades. This result could have repercussions on international trade and, especially, on economic relations with Europe.The cost of living, the evolution of the economy, and the impact of tariff policy have been some of the factors that have conditioned the American vote, according to major political media. In fact, discontent over rising product prices and the economic consequences of the Trump Administration's trade decisions have contributed to the electoral decline of the Republican Party.The result leaves the US president at the mercy of a Congress controlled by the opposition during the second half of his term. A circumstance that may hinder the approval of new legislative initiatives and increase scrutiny over his economic decisions.More political opposition, but not necessarily fewer tariffsOne of the main unknowns left by the election result is to what extent Democrats will be able to condition Trump's trade policy. With control of both chambers, the opposition gains the ability to launch investigations, convene hearings, question the Administration's decisions, and promote legislative initiatives aimed at limiting certain protectionist measures.However, the president retains executive tools to intervene in trade matters. This means that, although the new parliamentary balance may reduce his political margin, it does not automatically eliminate his ability to impose tariff measures.Furthermore, the possibility of reversing certain decisions through Congress faces legislative obstacles and an eventual presidential veto. Therefore, the change in majorities should be interpreted, for now, as a factor of political pressure and not as the beginning of immediate trade liberalization.Uncertainty can also play in the opposite direction. Faced with a less favorable Congress, Trump could resort more intensely to available executive instruments to maintain his trade agenda or strengthen his negotiating position with other international partners.The trade relationship between the United States and Europe, under observationFor the European Union, the election result comes at a particularly relevant moment. The trade framework agreed between Brussels and Washington in 2025 came into force on July 1, 2026, and established a US tariff ceiling of 15% for a large part of European products, with certain exceptions and specific conditions.This agreement sought to reduce trade tension and provide greater predictability for businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. However, it has not eliminated all barriers or the exposure of European exporters to specific sectoral measures.The new US political scenario could increase pressure to review certain trade conditions. It can also open space for the European Union to defend its interests in future negotiations, especially if internal questioning about the impact of tariffs on prices and business competitiveness increases.Marco Carias, an economist specializing in North America at Coface, has warned in the newspaper La Razón about Donald Trump's possible next steps in international policy: "The midterm elections could lead to a paradox: limiting Trump in domestic policy without reducing his capacity for international action to the same extent. The risk, therefore, is not so much that of a paralyzed Trump as that of a president who focuses his efforts on areas where Congress has less influence: trade and foreign policy." What impact can it have on the cosmetic industry?The United States represents a strategic market for numerous European cosmetics, perfumery, personal care, and ingredient companies, both due to its consumption volume and its capacity to absorb premium-positioned products. For this reason, any modification of commercial conditions can affect different links in the value chain.In cosmetics, perfumery, and personal care, European brands that export finished products may be affected by increased import costs. Depending on their positioning and commercial structure, companies may choose to absorb part of the impact on their margins, renegotiate conditions with their distributors, or pass part of the increase on to the final price.Manufacturers of cosmetic ingredients and chemical specialties may face higher costs of access to the US market, depending on the tariff classification of each product. Similarly, manufacturers of packaging, containers, and components must evaluate their exposure to trade measures and the possible need to diversify suppliers and supply chains.The impact does not depend exclusively on the tariff percentage, but also on who assumes the cost within the commercial chain. Although the tariff is normally paid by the US importer, its economic effect can be distributed among manufacturers, distributors, and consumers.International competitiveness, at the center of business strategyIn the case of Spanish companies, the US market continues to offer growth opportunities, especially for brands seeking to consolidate their internationalization in categories such as skin care, professional cosmetics, and perfumery. However, the stability of access conditions will be crucial for planning new investments and expansion strategies.Local production or collaboration with US industrial partners may also gain importance, although these alternatives require investments, operational capacity, and a profitability analysis that not all companies can undertake.The question is no longer solely how much it costs to export to the United States, but to what extent European companies can maintain their competitiveness in a market where trade rules can change at the pace of political decisions.

Does Trump's defeat in the midterms open a new scenario for European exports?

Although the change of majorities in Congress does not guarantee a withdrawal of tariffs, it can increase political pressure on the Trump Administration and condition trade relations between the United States and the European Union.